大摩：美国对药企对外授权合作征收关税可能性低

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that the U.S. plans to impose approximately 100% tariffs on imported semiconductor chips, which is perceived as a negative spillover effect on the upcoming pharmaceutical tariffs [1] Group 1: Tariff Implications - The likelihood of tariffs on payments for out-licensing deals (BD transactions) is considered low by Morgan Stanley [1] - Current U.S. tariffs primarily target tangible goods, focusing on production repatriation, while service-related revenues, including intellectual property transfers, receive less attention [1] Group 2: Future BD Transactions - Most BD agreements involve granting development and manufacturing rights to global licensors, with some licensors planning to produce approved licensed drugs locally in the U.S. after receiving approval [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates an increase in BD transactions in the second half of 2025 and beyond, particularly among key pharmaceutical companies with strong product lines, such as Hengrui Medicine, China National Pharmaceutical Group, and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group [1] Group 3: Impact on Chinese Pharmaceutical Companies - Chinese pharmaceutical companies currently have a low market share in the U.S. for finished drug sales, suggesting that any tariffs may have a limited impact [1]