UNI-PRESIDENT CHINA(220.HK)：1H25 RESULTS SLIGHTLY BEAT; BOTH INSTANT NOODLE AND BEVERAGE SALES OUTPACED INDUSTRY GROWTH

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a 33.2% year-on-year net profit growth alongside a 10.6% year-on-year total revenue growth in 1H25, slightly exceeding expectations, driven by strong brand equity and R&D capabilities, although short-term outlook is uncertain due to increased competition in the food delivery sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for UPC rose 10.6% year-on-year to RMB 17,087 million in 1H25, slightly above expectations [1]. - Beverage sales increased by 7.6% year-on-year, accounting for 63.1% of total revenue, primarily driven by a 9.0% growth in ready-to-drink (RTD) tea [1]. - Sugar-free RTD tea experienced significant growth despite heightened market competition [1]. - Food sales grew robustly by 8.8% year-on-year in 1H25, gaining market share from the largest competitor [1]. - Other revenue surged by 91.8% year-on-year to RMB 916 million, representing 5.4% of total revenue in 1H25 [1]. - Overall gross profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 34.3%, with beverage gross margin at 39.4% (up 1.4 percentage points) and food gross margin at 26.8% (down 0.4 percentage points) [1]. - Shareholders' profit increased by 33.2% year-on-year to RMB 1,287 million, slightly above expectations [1]. Outlook - Management anticipates long-term top-line growth of 6%-8% year-on-year, but short-term growth may be impacted by intensified competition following the food delivery battle [2]. - The OEM business is expected to sustain robust growth from 2025 to 2027, with the F&B OEM market size in China projected to double in the next two years [2]. - Net profit margin expansion will depend on portfolio upgrades, promotion cuts, and efficiency gains [2]. - Raw material costs are expected to remain generally controllable despite a recent increase in palm oil prices [2]. Risks and Valuation - Key risks include intensified competition, challenges in strategy execution, changes in consumer preferences, cost inflation pressures, and food safety issues [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-27 have been fine-tuned, considering faster-than-expected growth in other revenue and near-term competitive pressures [3]. - Net profit margin forecasts have been slightly revised upwards due to more disciplined expense control, despite lower gross profit margin assumptions due to a higher proportion of low-margin OEM business [3]. - The target price is maintained at HK$10.40, implying a 18.2x/16.2x P/E for 2025-26, with a potential upside of 12% [3].