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高盛预测Q2互联网行业负增长
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-08 02:54

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts a significant performance divergence in the Chinese internet sector for Q2, driven by pressures on platform-based businesses while AI and gaming segments continue to grow [2][3]. Industry Overview - The Chinese internet sector is expected to experience its first year-on-year profit decline since 2022, estimated at -10%, primarily due to the underperformance of e-commerce and local service platforms. However, excluding major platforms like Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, and Pinduoduo, the remaining sectors are projected to see an 11% profit growth [3]. Key Focus Areas - AI-Driven Growth: There is a notable increase in demand for AI-driven services, significantly boosting cloud computing revenues. Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth is expected to accelerate from 18% in Q1 to 23% in Q2, aligning with trends seen in major global competitors. Tencent's AI advertising and gaming sectors are also contributing positively to profitability [4]. - Profitability Pressure on Transaction Platforms: Major platforms such as Meituan, JD.com, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo are anticipated to face profitability challenges in Q2. Alibaba's adjusted EBIT is expected to decline by 16%, while Meituan and JD.com may see declines of 58-70%. This downturn is largely attributed to intense competition in the instant delivery sector, with a prolonged period of losses expected [5]. - Stable Growth in Gaming and Mobility: In contrast to the challenges faced by transaction platforms, the gaming and mobility sectors are showing healthy profit growth. Tencent's gaming division is performing particularly well, with titles like "Delta Force" and "Valorant Mobile" expected to generate significant annual revenues. Didi's ride-hailing services are projected to see an 11% increase in order volume, maintaining its market leadership [6][7]. Company-Specific Forecasts - Tencent Holdings: Expected Q2 revenue growth of 11% and adjusted EBIT growth of 15%. Gaming revenue is projected to increase by 15%, with advertising revenue up by 17%. Upcoming game launches are anticipated to drive further growth [8]. - Alibaba: Anticipated Q1 revenue growth of 3% for FY2026, with adjusted EBIT expected to decline by 16%. Excluding certain factors, customer management revenue is projected to grow by 11%, and Alibaba Cloud's revenue is expected to rise by 23% [8]. - Pinduoduo: Expected Q2 revenue growth of 11%, but adjusted EBIT is forecasted to decline by 38%. The company is focusing on its international expansion strategy [8]. - Meituan and JD.com: Both companies are expected to experience significant impacts on their Q2 performance, with Meituan's revenue projected to grow by 16% but adjusted EBIT to decline by 58%. JD.com is also expected to see a 70% decline in overall EBIT [9].