行业政策预期升温，石化ETF（159731）涨超0.7%，凸显配置价值

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is undergoing a significant transformation, necessitating stricter capacity exit or restriction policies to shift from capacity growth to high-quality development due to changing market dynamics and overcapacity concerns [1] Industry Summary - On August 8, the three major indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.20% [1] - The China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index showed strength, with leading stocks including Haohua Technology, Luxi Chemical, and China Petroleum [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) rose over 0.7%, following the index's upward trend [1] Market Dynamics - According to Tianfeng Securities, industries with significant capacity restrictions during the previous supply-side reform experienced notable excess returns [1] - The petrochemical sector, due to its different developmental stage, still has a high degree of external dependence on high-end petrochemical products and new chemical materials, which is less stringent compared to coal, steel, and cement industries [1] - With the peak demand for refined oil and a significant increase in self-sufficiency rates for ethylene and PX, the development logic of the petrochemical industry has profoundly changed [1] Policy Implications - The industry urgently requires stricter capacity exit or restriction policies to promote a transition from capacity growth to high-quality development [1] - The top three sectors in the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index are refining and trading (28.79%), chemical products (22.8%), and agricultural chemical products (19.45%), which are expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition, restructuring, and eliminating backward production capacity [1]