绩后飙涨12%已司空见惯！AppLovin电商业务推迟但2026年预期大幅上调

Core Viewpoint - AppLovin reported strong Q2 earnings with revenue of $1.259 billion, exceeding Wall Street expectations, and a high adjusted EBITDA margin of 81% [1][2] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached $1,258.8 million, a 9% increase from the previous quarter, and slightly below the estimate of $1,259.4 million [2] - Adjusted EBITDA was $1,018.3 million, reflecting a 1.5% increase compared to estimates [2] - Gross profit was $1,113.3 million, with a gross margin of 88.5% [2] - The company’s EBIT was $1,015.6 million, showing a 3.9% increase from estimates [2] Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, AppLovin's stock price increased by nearly 12%, which is considered moderate given its high volatility [2][3] - The company has a beta coefficient of 3.7, indicating significant stock price fluctuations compared to the Russell 1000 index [3] Future Outlook - AppLovin's management provided Q3 revenue guidance of $1.33 billion, slightly above market expectations but lower than some investors' expectations for double-digit growth [5] - The e-commerce self-service platform is expected to launch in H1 2026, which has been delayed from previous expectations [5][9] - Bank of America raised its 2026 revenue forecast for AppLovin from $8.09 billion to $10.05 billion, driven by the anticipated launch of the e-commerce advertising program [3][6] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to implement a new recommendation program for large e-commerce advertisers starting October 1, 2025 [9] - There is a focus on expanding into global markets to activate audiences outside the U.S. [9] - The self-service platform for small and medium-sized enterprises is expected to unlock significant advertising demand [9] Valuation Adjustments - Bank of America maintained a target price of $580 for AppLovin but adjusted the enterprise value/EBITDA multiple from 32x to 24x due to execution risks associated with the e-commerce initiatives [7]