国际金价小幅上扬，现货黄金报3379.73美元/盎司，市场波动引投资者关注

Core Viewpoint - Current gold prices are influenced by a combination of factors including a weak dollar, rising interest rate expectations, and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and economic concerns [5][6][8]. International Gold Prices - Spot gold is reported at $3,379.73 per ounce as of August 6, showing a 0.18% increase from the previous day [1]. - COMEX gold futures are priced at $3,435 per ounce, reflecting a 0.25% rise [2]. Domestic Gold Prices - In the Shenzhen market, retail prices range from 756 to 780 yuan per gram, with minimal fluctuations noted [3]. - Major brand stores, such as Chow Tai Fook, quote prices at 1,015 yuan per gram as of August 7, with additional processing fees [4]. Recent Price Increases - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 90%, with an expected total reduction of 100 basis points for the year, contributing to a weaker dollar and lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold [5]. - Weak U.S. non-farm payroll data for July, with only 73,000 jobs added, has heightened recession fears [6]. - Increased trade tensions, such as the Trump administration's tariffs on semiconductors, have escalated global trade friction [7]. - Tensions in the Middle East, particularly missile launches from Iran towards Israel, have driven demand for safe-haven assets [8]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central bank gold purchases are projected to reach 1,045 tons in 2024, with China increasing its gold reserves for 20 consecutive months, providing long-term support for gold prices [9]. Market Reactions and Consumer Sentiment - Consumer behavior is showing a "buy high, not low" mentality, with sales increasing during price rises; for instance, a Shenzhen retailer reported a 30%-40% drop in sales after a price decrease [10]. - The psychological price point for consumers is concentrated around 600-700 yuan per gram, indicating that current prices are still above expectations [11]. Investment Trends - Asian buyers are actively purchasing physical gold, particularly in emerging markets, indicating stable demand [12]. - U.S. investors are cashing out, leading to a decrease in gold premiums as some funds realize profits at high levels [13]. Future Price Predictions - Short-term volatility is anticipated, with technical resistance levels between $3,380 and $3,400 per ounce; a breakthrough could push prices towards $3,500 [14]. - If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates as expected or if geopolitical risks ease, gold prices may retreat to a support level of $3,350 [15]. - Long-term bullish outlooks suggest that due to weakened dollar credibility, global stagflation risks, and continued central bank purchases, gold prices could enter a bull market range of $2,600 to $3,800 per ounce. Citibank has raised its target price to $3,500 per ounce, predicting a trading range of $3,300 to $3,600 [16]. Practical Recommendations - Ordinary investors are advised to avoid high leverage in gold futures and paper gold products due to high risks [17]. - Diversification is recommended, with physical gold constituting no more than 5% of household assets, in reference to the central bank's 15% foreign exchange reserve ratio [18]. - Regular investments in gold ETFs, such as Bosera Gold, can help mitigate risks [19]. Consumer and Recycling Insights - For essential buyers (e.g., weddings, gifts), current prices are more favorable compared to earlier highs of approximately 1,200 yuan per gram, making it a good time to purchase [20]. - The resale value of ordinary gold jewelry is about 10 yuan per gram, while high-weight gold bars have a lower discount of 2-3 yuan per gram [21].