金价的“重大隐患”：央行买的少了？

Core Viewpoint - Central bank gold demand has significantly decreased in Q2, raising concerns about the potential impact on gold prices, which may lead to adjustments in future price expectations [2][3][5]. Group 1: Central Bank Demand Trends - Global central bank gold demand fell by one-third in Q2 compared to Q1, reaching the lowest level since Q2 2022 [2][3]. - The decline in central bank demand is particularly alarming as it has been a key driver of rising gold prices in recent years [5]. - Central bank demand's share in the global gold market has increased from 10% in 2021 to 21% in 2024 [6]. Group 2: Implications for Gold Prices - The slowdown in central bank demand suggests a weakening of the crucial support for gold prices, potentially threatening future price stability [2][3]. - Deutsche Bank's analysis indicates that if the current pace of central bank demand continues, gold price forecasts for 2026 may need to be adjusted downwards from $3,700 per ounce to around $3,600 per ounce [14]. - In extreme scenarios, if annual central bank demand drops to 500 tons, gold price predictions could fall to $3,300 per ounce [14]. Group 3: Forecasting Challenges - Deutsche Bank acknowledges that the slowdown in central bank demand poses a downside risk to its gold price forecasting model, which previously assumed a demand of 1,000 tons in 2025 [12]. - The actual demand in the first half of 2025 was only 415 tons, necessitating a significant increase in the second half to meet annual targets [12]. - The bank has set 375 tons per half-year as a critical threshold for maintaining current price forecasts [14]. Group 4: Potential Demand Drivers - Despite the decline in central bank demand, other sources of investment demand may help offset this shortfall [15]. - Recent policy changes in the U.S. could introduce new demand dynamics for gold, such as including precious metal funds in 401(k) retirement plans [15]. - The asymmetric response of jewelry consumption and gold recycling markets may provide additional support for gold prices [15].