凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司：特朗普"盯上"美联储理事沃勒

Core Viewpoint - Christopher Waller, a prominent "hawk" within the Federal Reserve, is being considered as a potential candidate for the Fed Chair by Trump's team, which could lead to significant shifts in global monetary policy [2]. Group 1: Waller's Policy Stance - Waller is known for being the most steadfast hawk within the Federal Reserve, advocating for interest rate hikes up to 6% [3]. - He introduced the "Waller Rule," which states that interest rates must be raised if the unemployment rate falls below 4% [3]. - Waller has publicly opposed Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), arguing that they pose a threat to financial freedom [3]. Group 2: Implications of Waller's Potential Appointment - Waller's hawkish stance aligns with Trump's image as a "fighter against inflation," potentially influencing economic policy direction [4]. - His appointment could serve to counterbalance current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is viewed as a guardian of Biden's political legacy [4]. - Waller has strong ties with major Wall Street firms, including JPMorgan, which may affect market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Potential Market Impact - If appointed, Waller may accelerate the balance sheet reduction, leading to a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve [4]. - Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, could face stricter regulations under Waller's leadership [4]. - There may be an increasing divergence in policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, putting pressure on the Euro [4]. Group 4: Broader Context - The ongoing competition for the Federal Reserve Chair position highlights a deeper crisis of politicization within U.S. monetary policy [4]. - The independence of the central bank may be challenged by electoral politics, making the Fed a significant source of uncertainty in global financial markets by 2025 [4].