部分债券恢复征税对国债期货如何影响？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the reintroduction of value-added tax (VAT) on certain bonds will impact the pricing of government bond futures, leading to an expected widening of the yield spread between new and old bonds [1][4][19] - The tax policy will reduce the after-tax yield of various government bonds by approximately 4.5 to 12 basis points, with the new bond to old bond yield spread expected to converge towards a lower limit of around 5 basis points [5][6][15] - The new bonds issued on August 22, including a 30-year bond and a 10-year bond, are likely to be included in the deliverable range for specific futures contracts [2][11][19] Group 2 - The impact of the tax policy on the pricing of government bond futures contracts is significant, with expectations that new bonds may become the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) bonds for certain contracts, particularly the longer-dated ones [3][14][19] - The likelihood of new bonds becoming CTD bonds for the T, TF, and TS contracts is higher for the longer-dated contracts (2512 and 2603) rather than the near-month contract (2509) [18][19] - Investors are advised to monitor the potential widening of the price spread between near-month and far-month contracts, particularly for the T and TS contracts [19]