东亚区域合作如何顶住这场“压力测试”

Core Insights - The East Asian cooperation, primarily through the ASEAN and 10+3 mechanisms, is under significant pressure due to U.S. tariffs and geopolitical challenges, necessitating resilience and adaptability for future growth [1][4][12] Group 1: Economic Growth and Challenges - The ASEAN and 10+3 region is projected to have an economic growth rate of 3.8% in 2025, showing resilience amid global trade turmoil, although growth may slow to 3.6% in 2026 due to ongoing challenges [1][2] - The 10+3 cooperation mechanism, which originated in response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis, has evolved to address economic recovery and long-term development, highlighting its crisis-driven nature [2][3] Group 2: Structural Adjustments and Trade Dynamics - The U.S. tariffs pose a direct threat to the export-driven economies of the 10+3 countries, which rely heavily on trade with the U.S. and are now compelled to adjust their export structures [4][5] - Countries like Japan and South Korea have engaged in significant investments and market openings to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, while ASEAN nations are experiencing internal divisions regarding trade agreements with the U.S. [6][7] Group 3: Regional Cooperation and Integration - The 10+3 cooperation framework is characterized by a strong emphasis on political trust and market complementarity, with a combined population of approximately 2.2 billion, creating a substantial consumer market [3][4] - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is seen as a vital tool for enhancing regional economic integration, focusing on tariff reductions and unified rules of origin [11][12] Group 4: Future Directions and Strategic Initiatives - To strengthen regional cooperation, the 10+3 countries should maintain ASEAN's central role, implement RCEP effectively, and embrace digital and green economies as new growth engines [8][9] - Enhancing the regional financial safety net and exploring local currency settlements are crucial for increasing resilience against external economic shocks [8][12]