多重因素推动7月进出口回升

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's export growth rate in USD terms rebounded to 7.2% from 5.9% in June, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 5.6% [1][5] - Import growth also improved, rising to 4.1% from 1.1% in June, surpassing the expected decline of -1% [1][5] - The trade surplus slightly decreased to $98.2 billion, an increase of $12.8 billion year-on-year, continuing to support overall demand [1][5] Export Analysis - The rebound in export growth is attributed to several factors, including the "export rush" effect and a recovery in global trade activity [2][5] - The semiconductor cycle's strength has positively impacted related industries, with July exports to South Korea and Taiwan showing significant improvement [2][5] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN have notably strengthened, contributing approximately 4 percentage points to July's export growth [2][6] Import Analysis - July's import growth rate increased by 3 percentage points to 4.1%, driven by improvements in agricultural products and upstream energy imports [3][9] - Energy imports improved from -15.9% to -11.8%, while agricultural imports rose from 1.9% to 5.1% [3][9] - Imports from the US continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop from -15.5% to -18.9%, negatively impacting overall import performance [3][9] Future Outlook - The implementation of new "reciprocal tariffs" and the "232" industry tariffs in August may further elevate global tariff levels, with potential impacts on trade activities still to be observed [4][10] - Despite uncertainties, the overall global demand is expected to remain stable due to fiscal and monetary policy expansions in major economies [4][10] - China's relative advantage in the US import market may increase, although risks from declining global trade volumes persist [4][10] Sector-Specific Insights - The export of mechanical and electrical products showed resilience, with integrated circuit exports growing significantly [6][7] - Automotive exports continued to rise, with a growth rate of 12.1% in July, while steel and fertilizer exports also saw substantial increases [7][8] - Exports to Africa and ASEAN remained strong, reflecting the diversification of China's export destinations [8][9]