Where Will Tesla Be in 1 Year?

Core Viewpoint - The company faces near-term challenges but has significant upside potential, making it a high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity [1] Group 1: Tesla's Business Dynamics - Tesla's valuation is heavily influenced by its robotaxi and unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) offerings, which are expected to contribute more value than its electric vehicle (EV) business alone [2] - The electric vehicle segment is critical, but the majority of Tesla's value is derived from its technology and future services rather than just car sales [3] Group 2: Sales Performance - Tesla's EV deliveries have declined by 13% year over year for the last two quarters, attributed to high interest rates and the removal of federal EV tax credits [6] - Despite a decline in overall sales, the Model 3 saw a 38% increase in sales year-to-date in the first half, while U.S. sales excluding the Model Y were up 14.1% year-to-date [4][5] - The decline in Model Y sales is primarily due to increased competition from price-competitive EV SUVs and a pause in sales as refreshed models were introduced [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a challenging period ahead, with Musk indicating that Tesla could experience "a few rough quarters" due to market conditions and regulatory hurdles [9][10] - A more optimistic scenario includes potential sales growth driven by the approval of unsupervised FSD in certain areas and the rollout of the Cybercab robotaxi product, expected to begin production in 2026 [12][15][16] - The long-term potential from robotaxis and FSD services positions Tesla as an attractive investment for risk-tolerant investors, despite current pressures on operating profit margins [10][15]