百利好晚盘分析：九月降息机会大 金价迎震荡上行

Group 1: Gold Market - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 2 reached 226,000, slightly above market expectations and previous values, indicating a weak employment market [1] - President Trump has nominated Stephen Moore as a temporary Federal Reserve governor, with a dovish stance likely to influence future monetary policy [1] - Analysts suggest a high probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts due to recent weak economic data [1] - Technical indicators show a sideways trend for gold, with resistance at $3424 and support at $3360 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease, with potential U.S.-Russia talks scheduled, which may reduce supply disruption risks and could lead to the lifting of secondary sanctions on Russia [2] - Despite the easing tensions, U.S. oil demand remains high, supported by a significant drop in EIA crude oil inventory data [2] - Saudi Arabia's unexpected increase in official crude oil prices indicates a positive outlook for future oil demand, limiting potential price declines [2] - Technical analysis shows a bearish trend for oil prices, with resistance at $65 and support at $62.51 [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The nomination of Stephen Moore and the potential appointment of a dovish Federal Reserve chair are likely to put pressure on the U.S. dollar [3] - Market expectations indicate a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for the dollar, with risks of further declines towards the 97.92 level [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown strong performance recently, with support found at the 62-day moving average [5] - The index is in an upward trend, with potential for further gains if it breaks above previous highs [5] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices have been relatively stagnant following a significant drop at the end of July, entering a phase of technical correction [6] - The market remains under bearish pressure, with prices fluctuating between $4.28 and $4.44 [6]