7月出口再超预期：新兴市场持续发力，下半年有望维持韧性

Core Viewpoint - China's import and export trade maintained a positive trend in the first seven months of the year, with a total trade value of 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [2] Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first seven months, China's exports reached 15.31 trillion yuan, growing by 7.3%, while imports were 10.39 trillion yuan, down by 1.6% [3] - In July, the total trade value was 3.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7%, with exports at 2.31 trillion yuan (up 8%) and imports at 1.6 trillion yuan (up 4.8%) [3] - ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with a trade value of 4.29 trillion yuan (up 9.4%), followed by the EU at 3.35 trillion yuan (up 3.9%), and the US at 2.42 trillion yuan (down 11.1%) [4] Group 2: Sectoral Insights - High-tech product exports totaled 5.1 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4%, contributing 45.4% to overall export growth [6] - Exports of integrated circuits increased by 20.5%, while automotive exports rose by 9.7% [6] - Capital goods export growth showed divergence, with medical instruments increasing by 12.2% and general machinery by 5.3%, while shipbuilding declined by 1.5% [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - The potential impact of increased US tariffs on global trade may affect China's export growth, but demand from Europe and emerging markets is expected to provide support [2][3] - Despite a slowdown in "rush exports," China's export growth is anticipated to remain resilient due to fiscal and monetary policy expansions in major economies [7]