布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：穆迪首席经济学家直指美国经济站在悬崖边缘

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, with historical downward revisions for May and June, totaling a loss of 258,000 jobs [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the highest level since January 2023, indicating a deteriorating labor market [1] - Market reactions included a 1.6% drop in the S&P 500 and a 2.2% decline in the Nasdaq, alongside a surge in the VIX index above 20, reflecting heightened risk aversion [1] Group 2 - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warned that the U.S. economy is on the brink of recession, citing stagnation in consumer spending, ongoing declines in construction and manufacturing, and a misleadingly low unemployment rate [3] - Zandi pointed out that hiring freezes and reduced working hours are classic signals of an impending recession, exacerbated by tariffs eroding corporate profits and tightening immigration policies affecting labor supply [3] - The decline in foreign-born labor is undermining economic growth, with significant job losses in low-end sectors due to public sector layoffs and immigration crackdowns [3] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the downward revisions in employment data may indicate deeper issues, with tariffs disrupting the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' predictive models [5] - The potential legal challenges facing major tech companies like Apple and Google regarding their search agreements could expose them to economic downturns [5] - Historical data indicates that August and September are typically weak months for U.S. stocks, and concerns about recession may dominate the market in the near term, although a rebound in non-farm payrolls in September and October could restore optimism [5]