资本热话 | 三年深套阴影难消，基金赚了业绩仍难留人心

Core Insights - The market is experiencing a "recovery" trend, but investors are still facing a "break-even and redeem" dilemma, leading to significant operational divergence among them [2][5] - Nearly 90% of actively managed equity funds have reported positive returns over the past year, with 40 funds achieving over 100% growth [3][4] - Despite the recovery, many investors are still in the phase of waiting for their accounts to break even, with a significant number of funds still showing substantial losses [4][6] Group 1: Fund Performance - As of August 6, 99% of 4,349 actively managed equity funds have recorded positive returns over the past year, with 40 funds doubling their performance [3] - Notable funds like CITIC Securities North Exchange Select have achieved a return of 212.25% over the past year, while several others have also seen returns exceeding 150% [3][4] - The recovery trend is evident even among funds that had previously underperformed, with many well-known fund managers seeing their net values recover significantly [4][6] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investor behavior has shown three distinct strategies: some redeem their funds upon breaking even, others redeem after significant loss reduction, and a third group waits until full recovery before redeeming [5][6] - There is a notable redemption pressure when fund net values approach their cost basis, indicating a tendency for investors to cash out as they see recovery [6][7] - Despite improved fund performance, there has been a significant net redemption of 1,764 billion units in actively managed equity funds in the first half of the year, indicating a disconnect between performance and investor confidence [6][7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recovery in fund performance has not yet translated into increased investor trust, largely due to the memory of past losses from 2022 to 2024 [7] - The "break-even and redeem" behavior has become a common pattern among investors who entered the market at high points in 2021 and faced significant losses [7] - To resolve the disconnect between fund performance and capital inflow, both fund managers need to enhance their professional capabilities and the industry ecosystem must be optimized [7]