大摩最新研判：AI 眼镜出货量将持续攀升，下一个 智能入口 要来了？

Core Insights - The report by Morgan Stanley highlights the rapid development of AI + AR glasses in the Greater China and Asia-Pacific regions, with companies like Alibaba, Rokid, and Xreal integrating AR functionalities using advanced technologies such as MicroLED and waveguide systems. Meta's new AR glasses, Celeste, will utilize LCOS display modules, with battery life being a critical consideration. The AI glasses SoC market is projected to grow at an 80% CAGR from 2024 to 2028, with the CIS and LCOS markets expected to reach $273 million and $153 million, respectively, by 2028 [1][17][22]. Company Developments - Alibaba has launched the WOW (哇哦) AI + AR glasses, which incorporate a mainstream system-on-chip (SoC) along with a BES2800 chip from Best Technology to enhance energy efficiency. The glasses utilize dual micro-LEDs and a waveguide system for AR functionality, featuring monochrome (green) micro-LED chips from Crystal Clear Optoelectronics [2][8]. - Rokid's AI + AR glasses employ similar silicon components and also use micro-LEDs from Crystal Clear Optoelectronics, equipped with four waveguides (two per eye) [2][8]. - Xreal has taken a different approach by combining micro-OLEDs with a birdbath optical stack, which, while potentially increasing weight, allows for full-color image display [3][8]. Meta's Product Launch - Meta's Celeste AI/AR glasses are expected to be officially launched at the Meta Connect event in September. The glasses will feature a high-resolution silicon LCD panel with 58 pixels and a refresh rate of 120 Hz, utilizing waveguide technology licensed from Lumus and manufactured by Schott. Battery life remains a significant challenge for user acceptance [4][5][6]. Market Trends and Projections - Morgan Stanley's research indicates that the short-term adoption of silicon waveguides in AR displays is limited due to high costs, with a $5 silicon wafer supporting only 3-4 pairs of glasses. The third-generation Ray-Ban Meta 3 is anticipated to enhance AI-driven multimodal features, including real-time object detection and environmental understanding, while retaining similar semiconductor solutions [7][8]. - The report also notes that the AI glasses market is expected to see significant growth, with a projected 80% CAGR for the SoC market from 2024 to 2028, and the total addressable market for image sensors in AI glasses estimated to reach $273 million by 2028 [17][19].