调研丨当前环境下资管机构对各类资产走势的预判和投资策略之变

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was 5.3% year-on-year, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2% [2] - The main drivers for economic growth in the second half are expected to be diversified, with infrastructure investment and government consumption playing key roles, alongside technological innovation and green development [2][5] - The expansion of fiscal policy is seen as the primary factor influencing macroeconomic trends, emphasizing the importance of steady growth [5] Group 2: Equity Market Insights - The A-share market exhibited an "N-shaped" oscillating upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 2.76% to 3444.42 points by June 30, 2025 [6][9] - Small-cap growth stocks outperformed, with the North Securities 50 Index leading with a 39.45% increase [6] - Institutional investors maintain a positive outlook for A-shares in the second half of 2025, with a preference for growth stocks despite a current focus on high-dividend assets [10][13] Group 3: Fixed Income Market Dynamics - The bond market in the first half of 2025 showed a "V-shaped" yield pattern, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.64% and 1.9% [17][19] - The market is characterized by low interest rates, low spreads, and low volatility, with a consensus on the continuation of a low-rate environment [19][24] - Institutions are increasingly adopting flexible trading strategies while remaining cautious about credit risks, with a preference for high-frequency trading in government bonds [25][24] Group 4: Global Market Trends - The global capital market experienced increased volatility in the first half of 2025, with the US dollar weakening and US stock markets facing significant fluctuations [28] - There is a notable preference among asset management institutions for Hong Kong stocks over US stocks, reflecting expectations for market recovery [29] - The demand for safe-haven assets and inflation hedging tools remains strong, while traditional stable assets like bank deposits and real estate are losing appeal [34][36]