当前环境下资管机构对各类资产走势的预判和投资策略之变

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic landscape is shaped by a combination of policy efforts and market confidence recovery, with GDP growth in the first half of 2025 at 5.3% year-on-year, driven by infrastructure investment and government consumption [2][5] - The survey indicates that the main drivers of economic growth in the second half of the year will diversify, with a focus on technology innovation and green development [2][5] Group 2: Equity Market Performance - The A-share market exhibited an "N-shaped" upward trend in the first half of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.76% to close at 3444.42 points by June 30 [6][8] - Small-cap growth stocks outperformed, with the North Securities 50 Index leading with a 39.45% increase [6][8] - Despite a preference for high-dividend assets, institutional investors maintain confidence in the long-term prospects of growth sectors such as technology and healthcare [12][14] Group 3: Fixed Income Market Dynamics - The bond market in the first half of 2025 displayed characteristics of "low interest rates, low spreads, and low volatility," with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.64% and 1.8% [18][23] - The survey results suggest a preference for bond trading strategies focused on short-term fluctuations, while caution is advised regarding high-yield bonds due to credit risks [21][23] Group 4: Global Market Trends - The global capital market experienced increased volatility in the first half of 2025, with the U.S. dollar weakening and U.S. stock markets facing significant challenges [26][27] - Survey results indicate a stronger preference for Hong Kong stocks over U.S. stocks, reflecting expectations for market recovery [28][35] - There is a notable avoidance of non-standard assets and traditional safe-haven assets like bank deposits and real estate in first-tier cities, indicating a shift in investment strategies [33][35]