史诗级大逼空！美国一封信函，黄金空头突然“爆仓”

Core Viewpoint - Gold futures prices surged close to historical records following reports that the U.S. has ruled that gold bars will be subject to tariffs, with prices reaching $3,534 per ounce, breaking the previous record set on April 22 [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - A report from the Financial Times cited a letter from U.S. Customs and Border Protection stating that 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified under a customs code that requires tariffs [3]. - The anticipated tariff rate is 39%, which has raised concerns in the gold market, particularly as Switzerland is a major supplier of gold bars [4][6]. - Concerns over potential tariffs have led to increased exports of gold from Switzerland to the U.S., with 450 tons exported in the first quarter, impacting Comex gold prices and trading volumes [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The decision to impose tariffs disrupts established global trade flows, particularly affecting the movement of large gold bars between London, Switzerland, and the U.S. [5]. - Some refiners have responded to the tariff classification confusion by halting or reducing shipments, which may increase market uncertainty [5]. - The potential for a "TACO moment," where market dynamics shift due to tariff changes, is being closely monitored [6]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The gold market is also influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, concerns over U.S. stagflation, and strong physical demand from China, with gold futures up 31% this year [6]. - In the first half of the year, Switzerland exported $47.5 billion worth of gold to the U.S., significantly higher than the $12 billion expected for the second half of 2024 [7]. - The high tariff rate could lead to a shift in Switzerland's refining business to the UAE, which faces only a 10% tariff, potentially reducing the exaggerated trade surplus with the U.S. [7].