提名Miran对美债意味着什么？摩根大通：收益率曲线或进一步趋陡

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley suggests that if Trump successfully appoints Stephen Miran as a Federal Reserve governor, the U.S. yield curve may further steepen from its steepest level in four years [1][2]. Group 1: Yield Curve Dynamics - Following Trump's nomination of Miran, the spread between 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields has widened, currently hovering over 100 basis points, more than double the level at the time of Trump's inauguration [1]. - As of Friday, the 30-year Treasury yield has slightly increased to around 4.85%, while the 5-year yield remains stable at approximately 3.81% [2]. Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - Miran believes that the Trump administration's trade, immigration, and deregulation policies have a deflationary effect, which supports a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy, contributing to the observed steepening of the yield curve [2]. - Miran's previous call for reforming the Federal Reserve to achieve better economic outcomes suggests potential adjustments to the current policy framework, increasing market uncertainty regarding future monetary policy [5]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Reactions - The market has significantly increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 95% probability assigned to a 25 basis point cut in September, and at least one more cut expected by the end of the year [6]. - Following Miran's nomination, Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Feroli has adjusted predictions, moving the next 25 basis point cut expectation to September and maintaining forecasts for subsequent cuts in the following meetings [6]. Group 4: Broader Market Impact - As Trump advances his appointments to the Federal Reserve, the market will closely monitor how these changes may reshape the monetary policy framework, inflation targets, and economic growth priorities, potentially impacting the U.S. yield curve and broader asset pricing [7].