日本水稻面临极端高温，米价要再创新高了？

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing a significant rice supply shortage and price surge due to a record heatwave and minimal rainfall, impacting the country's main staple crop [1][2] Group 1: Weather Impact on Rice Production - Major rice-producing regions in Japan experienced the lowest rainfall in nearly 80 years in July, followed by extreme heat in August, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius [1] - The extreme weather conditions are occurring just before the rice harvest season, creating uncertainty around production levels [1] - The summer heat has already led to a 50% increase in rice prices compared to the previous year, with official data showing rice prices in June and May rising by 100.2% and 101.7% year-on-year, respectively [2] Group 2: Government Response and Agricultural Outlook - In response to the potential for another poor harvest, the Japanese government is encouraging farmers to expand planting beyond traditional yield limits and has formed a special task force to assist with irrigation [3] - Experts have differing views on the final rice yield; some predict a decline due to extreme weather, while others believe that increased planting area may mitigate some of the adverse effects [3] - The Japanese Ministry of Agriculture has stated that the exact production figures will only be known after the autumn harvest, with risks potentially spreading to other regions depending on future weather conditions [3] Group 3: Unique Market Conditions - Japan's rice crisis contrasts sharply with global markets, where favorable weather in major rice-producing countries has led to a decline in rice prices, easing food inflation for billions [4] - Japan maintains strict import controls on rice, allowing only 770,000 tons of duty-free rice annually, with tariffs on excess imports reaching 341 yen per kilogram (approximately $2.30), limiting the ability to stabilize domestic prices through imports [4] - Climate change poses a long-term challenge, with extreme heat events becoming more frequent, prompting Japan to explore adaptive measures such as rice cultivation in previously unsuitable regions like Hokkaido [4][5]