关税冲击来了，欧洲对美出口骤降，汽车出口暴跌35%，而这只是开始…

Core Insights - The impact of increased tariffs on European goods by the U.S. is becoming evident, with a significant drop in imports from Europe [1] - The automotive sector is the most affected, experiencing a 36% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. in June [3] - Overall, the decline in exports is expected to accelerate following the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on August 7 [1][4] Group 1: Import Trends - In June, U.S. imports from Europe fell from $56.6 billion in May to $45.2 billion, marking the lowest level since February 2024 [1] - The automotive industry faced the steepest decline, with a 36% year-on-year drop in exports [3] - Other sectors, such as transportation equipment and chemicals, also reported declines of 30% and 19% respectively [3] Group 2: Tariff Impact - The average tariff rate on European goods exported to the U.S. increased from 12% in June to 16% starting August 1 [4] - The current tariff rate of 15% is more damaging compared to the 10% rate during the tariff suspension period from April to July [4] - The report indicates that the observed decline in exports is still relatively mild compared to potential overall losses from the tariffs [4] Group 3: Sector-Specific Effects - Some sectors, like pharmaceuticals, showed a minor year-on-year decline of only 3%, despite a significant drop in monthly export amounts due to "front-loading" effects [4] - Industries such as processed metal products, electrical equipment, and rubber/plastics have not yet shown significant declines, with some even experiencing year-on-year growth [4] - The report suggests that unless European exporters are capturing U.S. market share, the current growth in these sectors may indicate an impending adjustment [4]