黄金储备九连涨，全球央行购金态势延续，金价或易涨难跌

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month, reaching 7.396 million ounces as of the end of July, with a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces, although the pace of increase has slowed [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Reserves - As of July 2023, China's gold reserves stand at 7.396 million ounces, marking a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces [2]. - This increase is the ninth consecutive month of growth, but the monthly increment has been low for five months [2]. - The PBOC's gold accumulation is seen as a response to changing global political and economic conditions, with expectations that gold prices may remain high for an extended period [2][5]. Group 2: Global Central Bank Trends - In Q2 2023, global central banks net purchased 166 tons of gold, a year-on-year decrease of 21% in the rate of accumulation [3][6]. - Despite the slowdown in gold purchases, central banks are expected to continue accumulating gold due to ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties [3][6]. - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks anticipate increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, with no central banks expecting a decrease [6]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of July 2023, China's foreign exchange reserves totaled $32,922 billion, a decrease of $25.2 billion or 0.76% from the end of June [3][4]. - The decline in foreign reserves is attributed to the appreciation of the US dollar and the impact of trade agreements reached by the US with multiple countries [4]. - The overall financial asset prices in China's foreign reserves have risen, which has mitigated the effects of the dollar's appreciation [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the PBOC should continue to increase gold reserves while moderately reducing US Treasury holdings to optimize the structure of international reserves [5]. - The current proportion of gold in China's official international reserve assets is 7.0%, significantly below the global average of around 15% [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties are expected to drive further increases in gold reserves among central banks globally [6].