【知识科普】为什么同类产品期货涨了看涨期权没涨？

Core Viewpoint - The article explains why call options do not rise in price when the futures prices of similar products increase, highlighting significant differences in price-driving factors between futures and options [1]. Group 1: Option Status - Call options may be in an out-of-the-money state, meaning the strike price is significantly higher than the current futures price, resulting in zero intrinsic value [4]. - The Delta value of out-of-the-money options is low, indicating weak sensitivity to price changes in the underlying asset, which limits the price increase of options even when futures rise [4]. Group 2: Time Value Decay - Time value diminishes as the expiration date approaches, leading to a non-linear decay that can offset any gains from rising futures prices [7]. - Deep out-of-the-money options have minimal time value, making them vulnerable to complete erosion of any intrinsic value increase due to time decay [7][8]. Group 3: Implied Volatility - Implied volatility is a key parameter in option pricing; a decrease in implied volatility can lead to a decline in call option prices despite an increase in futures prices [8]. - The relationship between volatility and option prices is characterized by a "see-saw effect," where a drop in implied volatility negatively impacts option prices, counteracting gains from Delta [8]. Group 4: Market Liquidity and Transaction Costs - Poor liquidity in deep out-of-the-money options can widen bid-ask spreads, causing actual transaction prices to appear unchanged despite theoretical price increases [9]. - Large orders from institutional investors can push up market prices, but retail investors may struggle to execute trades at reasonable prices due to insufficient market depth [10]. Group 5: Other Factors - Changes in interest rates have a minimal impact on commodity options compared to stock options, with slight increases in call option prices possible due to higher holding costs [11]. - Differences in exercise styles (American vs. European options) affect time value decay, with European options experiencing more significant losses in time value when futures prices rise [12].