上周“反内卷”预期降温，美联储9月降息预期提升

Market Overview - The AI industry chain demand expectations were boosted by related order factors, but the political bureau meeting's policy statements were moderate, leading to a pullback in market risk appetite [1] - A-shares showed a high open but low close, with the market facing pressure around the 3600-point level; growth style outperformed value style, and small-cap stocks performed slightly better than large-cap stocks [1][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.9%, while the CSI 300 fell by 1.8%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.7%, and the Wind All A Index decreased by 1.1% [1] Bond Market - Bond yields fell due to the stock-bond seesaw effect, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 2 basis points to 1.71% and the 30-year yield also down by 2 basis points to 1.95% [2] - The one-year government bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.37%, while the one-year AA+ credit spread fell by 1 basis point [2] International Market - The U.S. and other countries reached trade agreements, and the Federal Reserve maintained its policy, leading to a significant rebound in the dollar index and adjustments in European and U.S. stock markets [3] - The S&P 500 fell by 2.4%, the Nasdaq dropped by 2.2%, and the European STOXX 600 decreased by 2.6%; Brent crude oil rose by 2.7% while LME copper fell by 1.4% [3] A-share Sector Performance - Among the sectors, telecommunications (3.14%), pharmaceuticals (2.73%), media (1.11%), and defense (0.66%) performed the strongest, while non-ferrous metals (-4.69%), coal (-4.56%), building materials (-3.32%), and transportation (-3.28%) were relatively weak [6] - The growth and consumer sectors showed resilience, while cyclical and stable sectors were affected by various factors [6][8] Recent Important Events - The Political Bureau meeting on July 30 acknowledged the economic recovery but shifted focus from "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "maintaining policy continuity and stability" [9] - The emphasis is now on accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, indicating a shift towards more precise and effective financial policies [9] Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, with increasing internal dissent regarding potential rate cuts [10] - The possibility of a rate cut in September has risen significantly due to recent employment data revisions and trade negotiations [11] Public Fund Weekly Issuance - A total of 28 public funds were established last week, accumulating 12.8 billion units, with a continued focus on equity funds [14] - The issuance structure has shifted from being dominated by bond funds to a more balanced approach [14]