一个时代的落幕？比特币的“游戏规则”或已被彻底改变！

Core Viewpoint - The historical "cycle" of Bitcoin is showing signs of being broken, which could significantly impact how investors assess cryptocurrency price trends and potential entry points [1] Group 1: Bitcoin Cycle Overview - The Bitcoin cycle typically revolves around a key event known as "halving," which occurs approximately every four years and reduces mining rewards by half, limiting the total supply to 21 million Bitcoins [1] - Historically, Bitcoin prices tend to rise in the months following a halving event, reaching new all-time highs before experiencing a significant drop of about 70% to 80%, leading to a prolonged period of low prices known as "crypto winter" [2][3] Group 2: Changes in the Bitcoin Cycle - In the current cycle, Bitcoin reached a historical high of over $73,000 in March 2024, approximately one month before the halving, which deviates from the previous pattern where new highs were typically set 12-18 months post-halving [3] - The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. has been a major factor driving Bitcoin's price, attracting significant institutional investment and altering traditional cycle dynamics [3][4] Group 3: Factors Influencing the Cycle - The introduction of ETFs has brought in wealthy investors interested in long-term holdings, while other market factors have also evolved [4] - A more favorable macroeconomic environment and regulatory landscape are emerging, with indications that the likelihood of interest rate decreases is higher than increases, which could reduce the risk of future market crashes [5] Group 4: Current Stage of the Cycle - Historically, significant price appreciation for Bitcoin occurs between 500 to 720 days post-halving, suggesting potential price acceleration between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026 [6] - The latest historical high for Bitcoin was recorded on July 14, when it surpassed $123,000, indicating a shift in the traditional four-year cycle [6] Group 5: Market Volatility and Future Predictions - The typical 70%-80% price drop following a halving may no longer be applicable, with the current cycle showing a maximum drawdown of approximately 26% [7] - Market experts believe that while a 30% to 50% correction may occur due to macroeconomic shocks or regulatory surprises, these corrections are expected to be shorter and less severe than in previous cycles [7]