南财快评｜面临外部不确定性，日本下调增长预期

Group 1 - The U.S. has implemented tariffs on several trade partners, leading to a downward revision of Japan's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from earlier estimates [1] - Japanese automotive companies, including Toyota, are facing significant profit reductions due to the tariffs, with an expected combined operating profit drop of approximately 2.67 trillion yen (about 130.2 billion RMB) for the 2025 fiscal year [2] - Subaru anticipates a 52.7% decrease in net profit for the 2025 fiscal year, projecting a drop to 160 billion yen (approximately 7.8 billion RMB) [2] Group 2 - Japanese electronic component manufacturers are also experiencing profit declines, with a 24% reduction in net profit to 183.9 billion yen (around 8.9 billion RMB) for the April to June 2025 period [2] - The uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies is causing Japanese companies to lower their growth expectations and reduce investments [3] - Japan's inflation remains a concern, with rising food prices and an upward revision of inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027, despite the Bank of Japan maintaining current interest rates [3] Group 3 - Japan is actively seeking to expand exports, including efforts to restore imports of Japanese agricultural products by South Korea [4] - The Japanese government plans to overhaul its rice policy starting in 2027, which may positively impact the economy if implemented effectively [4] - Toyota is advancing technological innovation with the upcoming launch of "Woven City," aimed at testing autonomous driving technologies and fostering collaboration across industries [4]