Can China Momentum Balance Starbucks' U.S. Comps Challenges?

Core Insights - Starbucks Corporation is focusing on its fastest-growing international market, particularly China, to counteract weaker results in the U.S. market [1][4] U.S. Market Performance - In Q3 2025, U.S. comparable store sales decreased by 2% year over year, with transactions down nearly 4% [2][9] - The decline in U.S. sales was attributed to the comparison with the previous year's heavy discounting and promotional activities, rather than a sudden drop in customer engagement [2][4] China Market Performance - In contrast, China experienced a 2% growth in comparable store sales, driven by a 6% increase in transactions [3][9] - Growth in China is supported by beverage innovation, effective pricing strategies, and a rise in delivery sales, which align with changing consumer purchasing behaviors [3][4] Strategic Focus - Starbucks' ability to innovate products, leverage pricing power, and enhance delivery services in China is seen as a significant counterbalance to the challenges faced in the U.S. market [4] - The company's ongoing investments in localized offerings and operational improvements are enhancing brand relevance and attracting more customers in China [3][4] Valuation and Market Comparison - Starbucks is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 2.66, which is below the industry average of 3.83 [11] - In comparison, Dutch Bros and Chipotle are trading at higher forward P/S ratios of 6.4 and 4.38, respectively [11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Starbucks' fiscal 2025 EPS indicates a decline of 30.5% year over year, while the estimate for 2026 suggests an 18.2% increase [12]