“追光者”之困

Core Viewpoint - The aggressive expansion of companies like Shuangliang Energy reflects a broader trend in the photovoltaic industry, characterized by a "prisoner's dilemma" scenario where nearly all major silicon wafer and module manufacturers are rapidly increasing production capacity, leading to heightened operational risks and financial leverage [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The introduction of "anti-involution" policies has had immediate short-term effects, but the long-term implications require a more rational assessment, particularly regarding the challenges in defining "cost" and the complexities of enforcement [2][3]. - The photovoltaic industry has transitioned from a peak to a challenging phase, raising warnings for new entrants about the risks of cross-industry expansion, as the operational capabilities required for large-scale manufacturing differ significantly from those in equipment manufacturing [3][4]. Group 2: Government and Strategic Insights - Local government support has played a crucial role in facilitating rapid expansion for companies like Shuangliang Energy, prompting a need to reconsider how such support can avoid becoming a "risk amplifier" for the industry [4]. - The focus on scale, as exemplified by Shuangliang Energy, raises questions about the balance between scale, technology, and profitability, suggesting a shift in corporate strategy from "betting on cycles" to "resisting cycles" [4][5]. Group 3: Technological Challenges - The rapid pace of technological iteration in the photovoltaic industry, with significant shifts in market share from PERC to TOPCon technology, has led to asset impairment issues and a fragmented technological landscape, complicating sustained competitive advantages [5]. - The lack of intellectual property protection exacerbates the challenges faced by industry pioneers, who bear high R&D costs while followers benefit from technological diffusion, undermining long-term competitive barriers [5].