碳酸锂强势拉升 分析人士：理性看待各类消息

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures have rebounded after a brief correction, with a weekly increase of 11.02% as of August 8, closing at 76,960 yuan/ton [2][3]. Price Movement - The main contract for lithium carbonate (LC2511) closed at 76,960 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 11.02% [2]. - Weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by over 13% to 19,600 tons as of August 7, while weekly inventory only rose by 692 tons, indicating stable downstream demand [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Concerns about potential production halts at a major mine in Jiangxi are influencing market sentiment, with expectations leaning towards a production cut [4][5]. - The market is currently in a relatively balanced supply-demand phase, with some marginal improvements in fundamentals as demand expectations improve [4]. - Despite the price recovery, supply remains high, and the elasticity of supply is still significant, suggesting limited room for further price increases even if production halts occur [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the current operating rates for mica-derived lithium remain stable, there will be no substantial impact on supply-demand dynamics, although supply shortage concerns may persist [6]. - The potential for overseas supply to increase could exert downward pressure on lithium carbonate prices if related policies do not create sustained constraints [6]. - Investors are advised to approach market fluctuations with caution, as excessive speculation on supply disruptions may pose risks [6].