【UNFX课堂】当美联储开始演奏“软着陆小夜曲”，黄金却在敲响“末日警钟”

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Signals - The Federal Reserve is hinting at a potential "soft landing" with possible interest rate cuts, contrasting sharply with the surge in gold prices, indicating market anxiety about economic stability [2][4] - The appointment of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve is seen as a temporary measure, while the real power struggle involves Waller eyeing Powell's position, which could lead to significant market shifts by year-end [3] - The labor market data shows a rise in initial jobless claims and a peak in continuing claims, suggesting a weakening job market and economic uncertainty [4] Group 2: Trade Policies and Market Reactions - Trump's proposed 100% tariffs on semiconductors are perceived as a strategic move to encourage domestic manufacturing rather than a straightforward economic threat [5] - The tariffs are expected to prompt major companies like TSMC and Samsung to consider building factories in the U.S. to avoid these tariffs, potentially reshaping the semiconductor supply chain [5] - The recent imposition of tariffs on gold imports has led to a dramatic price increase, indicating that gold is becoming a geopolitical asset rather than just a hedge against inflation [6][7] Group 3: Currency and Economic Outlook - The U.S. dollar index is fluctuating around 98.0, reflecting uncertainty in the market as it awaits upcoming economic data, with expectations leaning towards a downward trend [4][8] - The combination of the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, weak labor market signals, and trade policy changes is creating a complex environment that could lead to significant market volatility [8]