关税冲击未被重视！市场隐忧正在加剧？如何应对潜在风险？

Group 1: Tariff Changes and Global Trade Dynamics - The core of the tariff storm is the return of differentiated tariffs, contrasting with the "most-favored-nation" principle advocated by GATT in 1946 [2] - The establishment of a new order implies an increase in tangible tariffs globally, while intangible tariffs (such as import quotas, subsidies, and currency controls) will gradually decrease, particularly affecting Asian countries [2][4] - The U.S. has implemented "reciprocal tariffs," effectively converting long-standing intangible trade barriers into tax rates, significantly impacting Asian exporters [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - U.S. stock markets initially overestimated the impact of tariff changes, experiencing a brief drop before reaching new highs, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed signs of "desensitization" [5] - The market may have collectively underestimated the depth of the changes, particularly regarding the long-term effects on global supply chains [5][6] - The tariff adjustments are part of a broader reallocation of major power interests, with the U.S. aiming to bring manufacturing and high-value industries back home to reduce foreign dependency [6] Group 3: Financial Market Responses - Financial markets have reacted inconsistently to tariff adjustments, with U.S. GDP exceeding expectations while inflation remained low, leading to volatile stock market movements [7] - The U.S. government generates approximately $200 billion annually from tariffs, which, combined with tax reduction policies, may offset most fiscal deficits [9] - The interplay between tariffs and tax policies is expected to influence market liquidity and economic fundamentals more than initially anticipated [9] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The ongoing tariff storm is just the beginning, with significant uncertainties expected in the future regarding global trade patterns and financial market risks [13] - U.S. equities still present investment value, particularly for long-term holdings in industry leaders and index funds, while caution is advised for the Chinese market due to potential impacts from tariff restructuring [14]