触底反弹！动力煤价格连续上涨，能否突破800元大关？

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in thermal coal prices is attributed to supply constraints caused by safety inspections and adverse weather conditions, alongside rising demand during peak consumption seasons [1][2][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From June 23 to August 7, the price of CCI5500 thermal coal rose from 615 RMB/ton to 679 RMB/ton, an increase of 64 RMB/ton, with lower calorific value coal experiencing even greater price hikes [1] - The domestic coal market is currently tight, with coal inventories at user enterprises dropping by over 50% since the end of June, while supply is limited due to weather, production policies, and safety inspections [1][2] - Heavy rainfall has led to the suspension of production in several coal mines, with 12 out of 21 surveyed mines in Inner Mongolia affected, totaling a capacity of 67.5 million tons [2] Price Trends and Forecasts - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year, dropping to 609 RMB/ton by mid-June, before gradually rising again [4] - Analysts predict that thermal coal prices in northern ports may exceed 700 RMB/ton in the second half of the year, supported by policy measures and seasonal demand peaks [5][6] - Despite the potential for prices to reach 700 RMB/ton, surpassing 800 RMB/ton remains challenging due to the need for improved industrial demand and the risk of transferring losses to downstream coal-consuming enterprises [5][6] Market Sentiment and Purchasing Behavior - The purchasing behavior of large power generation companies has shifted towards less transparent procurement methods, reducing market activity and impacting price dynamics [3] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with many stakeholders still wary of price increases due to previous downward trends in coal prices [3]