风口智库｜“反内卷”如何影响你的“钱袋子”？

Group 1 - In July, China's consumer price index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating marginal improvement in price trends [1][4] - The average CPI for January to July decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year, while the producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the first narrowing of the decline since March [1][4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, continuing to expand for three consecutive months, reaching the highest level since March 2024 [4][10] Group 2 - The improvement in price trends is attributed to rising prices in the service and industrial consumer goods sectors, alongside a narrowing decline in PPI due to enhanced market competition and regulatory measures against disorderly competition [4][6] - The government has emphasized the need to address low-price competition and improve product quality, with various departments implementing measures to support this initiative [6][7] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to reshape supply-demand structures, particularly in overcapacity industries, potentially leading to a more reasonable price recovery [10][11] Group 3 - The effectiveness of the "anti-involution" measures in sustaining price recovery remains uncertain, as it depends on the execution of policies and the ability to stimulate domestic demand [11][12] - Long-term price trends will be influenced by supply-demand relationships, with a focus on avoiding mere supply reduction without addressing demand expansion [14] - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies is anticipated to accelerate domestic demand recovery, which could counteract external deflationary pressures and support a slight rebound in domestic prices [15]