“白酒教父”or“带货网红”，吴向东想当白酒行业的雷军

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance warning from Zhenjiu Lidu indicates a significant decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, yet the stock price has surprisingly increased, reflecting market optimism about future prospects driven by the founder's marketing efforts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Zhenjiu Lidu's revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 2.4 billion to 2.55 billion RMB, representing a decline of 38.3% to 41.9% compared to the previous year [1]. - The net profit is expected to decrease by 23% to 24%, while non-IFRS net profit is anticipated to drop by 39% to 40% [1]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Despite the negative earnings forecast, Zhenjiu Lidu's stock price has risen significantly, indicating a disconnect between market sentiment and financial reality [2]. - Investor optimism may stem from the founder Wu Xiangdong's active engagement on social media, creating a buzz around the brand [4][5]. Group 3: Marketing Strategy - Wu Xiangdong has adopted a "celebrity" approach, utilizing short videos to promote the brand and engage with potential investors and distributors [4][5]. - The introduction of new products, such as the 800 RMB "Dazhen" and the 88 RMB "Niushi" beer, aims to attract attention and expand the distributor network [7][8]. Group 4: Challenges and Competition - The new product pricing may be too high for mass appeal, particularly in a declining consumption environment, raising concerns about scalability [10][12]. - Zhenjiu Lidu's positioning in the mid-to-high-end market faces stiff competition from established brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, which dominate consumer preferences [15][16]. Group 5: Strategic Considerations - The strategy of leveraging a celebrity persona to attract distributors may not be sustainable in the long term, as it risks exhausting the founder's brand equity [24][25]. - The company needs to align its product offerings with market demand, potentially considering lower-priced options to appeal to a broader audience [33][34].