高盛警告：美股或大跌20%！华尔街对瑕疵业绩“零容忍”

Market Performance - The US stock market continued its upward trend, with all three major indices closing higher, particularly the technology sector, which saw significant gains [1][2] - The Nasdaq reached a record high of 21,464.53 points, closing up 0.98%, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 11% [1] - For the week, the Dow Jones rose 1.35%, the S&P 500 increased by 2.43%, and the Nasdaq surged by 3.87%, indicating strong investor interest in growth and technology stocks [1] Market Sentiment and Influencing Factors - Market sentiment is driven by multiple factors, including ongoing earnings season, developments in Trump's tariff policies, and changes in Federal Reserve leadership [2] - Investors are balancing macroeconomic policies with corporate fundamentals while increasing their positions in core technology leaders, which supports the indices at high levels [2][3] Earnings Season and Investor Reactions - The earnings season has seen unprecedented scrutiny from investors, with over two-thirds of S&P 500 companies reporting, and those missing both earnings per share (EPS) and sales expectations experiencing an average stock price drop of 7.4% [7][8] - The market's "zero tolerance" reaction to earnings misses reflects high valuations and a low tolerance for any shortcomings [8][12] Internal Insider Activity - In July, less than one-third of S&P 500 companies saw insider buying, marking the lowest level since 2018, indicating executives' concerns about current valuations [12][14] - The ratio of insider buying to selling has dropped to about half of the long-term average, suggesting a cautious sentiment among those most familiar with their companies [12][14] Future Focus on Nvidia - Attention is shifting towards Nvidia's earnings report on August 27, with the company having seen its stock price rise over 85% since April [13] - Despite positive expectations for Nvidia's performance, there is a risk of short-term volatility due to profit-taking after significant gains [13]