准确预言金融危机的人，突发预言

Core Viewpoint - The article predicts that gold prices could reach $4,400, drawing parallels to past market movements and emphasizing a significant bullish trend in the long term [5][6][10]. Group 1: Historical Context - The author recalls that last winter (November-December 2024), gold prices remained stagnant before surging by $900, indicating a similar pattern in the current market with a triangular consolidation formation [5]. - Historical bull markets for gold often last over a decade, with the recent breakout of a 13-year "cup and handle" pattern suggesting that the current bull market is just beginning [6]. Group 2: Technical and Fundamental Drivers - The author identifies six fundamental "boosters" for gold prices, stating that technical analysis serves as a catalyst while fundamentals provide the underlying support [8]. 1. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has surged [9]. 2. M2 money supply has increased dramatically by $1.36 trillion, reaching a historical high, which could lead to inflation and benefit gold [9]. 3. U.S. retail investors have not fully entered the gold market, with current holdings in the largest gold ETF (GLD) being 30% lower than the peak in 2012, despite gold being 42% cheaper at that time [10]. 4. U.S. national debt has reached $37.19 trillion and is expected to exceed $40 trillion, which is favorable for gold in the long term [12]. 5. Central banks have been purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, doubling the amount bought in the previous decade [12]. 6. A significant shift of funds from U.S. equities to gold is underway, as indicated by the Dow/Gold ratio breaking a long-term upward trend [12]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The combination of factors such as rate cuts, high U.S. stock valuations, and rising debt levels creates a potent environment for a gold market rally [12]. - The author suggests that gold could potentially reach $15,000 within the next decade, highlighting the significant upside potential in the current market conditions [10].