2025年下半年建材需求有望阶段性回升

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's economy faces a more complex external environment, with increased trade protectionism prompting the government to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments and implement more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [1] Construction Steel Demand - In the first half of 2025, demand for construction steel continues to decline, with the real estate sector stabilizing while infrastructure investment plays a stabilizing role [2] - Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, with a fiscal deficit rate planned at around 4%, increasing the deficit scale to 5.66 trillion yuan, and public budget expenditure rising to 29.7 trillion yuan [3] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (including electricity) grew by 8.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while investment excluding electricity grew by 4.6% [3] - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds for local governments, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, focusing on investment construction and debt repayment [3] Real Estate Market - The real estate market shows initial signs of stabilization, with various indicators of decline narrowing, although real estate investment still decreased by 11.2% year-on-year [4][6] - New housing starts fell by 20.0%, with the rate of decline narrowing by 3.0 percentage points compared to the previous year [6] Future Outlook for Steel Demand - In the second half of 2025, construction steel demand is expected to stage a temporary recovery, supported by strong domestic demand policies and increased infrastructure investment [9] - The issuance of special bonds is accelerating, with 28.02 billion yuan issued by August 7, 2025, which is 63.7% of the annual total, indicating a potential increase in infrastructure investment growth [9] Overall Market Trends - The real estate sector is expected to continue a "weak recovery, slow stabilization" trend, with new construction and completion indicators likely to see reduced year-on-year declines but not achieve positive growth [10] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to accelerate, becoming a key driver for economic growth, although upward potential remains limited due to local fiscal constraints [10]