钢材库存暴增23万吨，焦煤涨不动了，钢材价格会大跌吗

Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to rising raw material costs, with coking coal prices soaring to 1296 yuan/ton and iron ore remaining high at 755 yuan/ton, leading to production costs exceeding 75% of total expenses [1] - Despite high production costs, steel mills are reluctant to cut production as profits per ton of steel reach a three-year high, indicating a complex balance between cost pressures and profitability [1] - Regulatory changes are shifting focus from "low prices" to "disorderly competition," prompting steel mills in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to prepare for production cuts as environmental inspections intensify [1] Inventory and Demand Dynamics - Steel inventory is on the rise, with total inventory increasing by 234,700 tons in one week, marking a two-month high, while construction site demand remains sluggish due to adverse weather conditions [3] - Despite the inventory surge, steel prices have shown resilience, with Shanghai rebar prices holding steady at 3250 yuan/ton, indicating a disconnect between supply and demand dynamics [3] - Exports of steel reached 9.836 million tons in July, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, while domestic demand is declining, particularly in rebar and hot-rolled products [3] Price and Market Reactions - Coking coal prices continue to rise, with the sixth round of price increases being pursued by coking plants, which are still operating at a loss despite previous hikes [4] - The market is characterized by a tug-of-war between supply and demand, with steel mills maintaining high production levels while facing increasing competition for coal resources [4] - The futures market is witnessing significant activity, with steel futures inventories reaching annual highs, and traders are closely monitoring price movements for potential short-selling opportunities [4]