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华能国际电力股份(00902.HK):容量电价提升盈利稳定性 成本下降助力估值修复
Ge Long Hui·2025-08-09 18:11

Group 1 - The company benefits from the decline in coal prices, leading to significant growth in profitability, with a net profit of RMB 95.78 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.19% [1] - The company's operating revenue for H1 2025 was RMB 1,120.32 billion, a decrease of 5.70% year-on-year, while the return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is projected at 7.08%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The reduction in coal costs has enhanced the profit elasticity of thermal power generation, with the average coal price for power generation in H1 2025 at RMB 917.05 per ton, down 9.23% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The company is expanding its installed capacity, with a total controllable power generation capacity of 145,125 MW by the end of 2024, and a clean energy proportion of 35.82% [1] - New wind power and photovoltaic installations in 2024 are 2,646 MW and 6,772 MW respectively, contributing to a significant increase in power generation and revenue [1] - Wind power generation increased by 11% year-on-year, while photovoltaic generation surged by 49% in H1 2025, indicating strong growth potential in the renewable energy sector [1] Group 3 - The introduction of a capacity price mechanism in Gansu province is expected to stabilize profitability for thermal power companies, with a fixed capacity price of RMB 330 per kW per year [2] - The company's operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to reach RMB 505 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, with H1 2025 cash flow at RMB 30.7 billion, a 30% increase [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.27 per share in 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.60% for A shares and 5.32% for H shares, enhancing investor confidence [2] Group 4 - The company is rated "Buy" for the first time, with projected net profits of RMB 130.46 billion, RMB 138.47 billion, and RMB 147.01 billion for 2025-2027 [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.0, 5.7, and 5.3 for 2025-2027, indicating attractive valuation [3] - The company's high dividend yield above 5% and significant asset value from dividends contribute to the positive investment outlook [3]