俄罗斯石油转向：印度退缩，中国加码

Group 1 - India, once a major buyer of Russian oil, is now reducing its purchases due to its reliance on the US market and diminishing discounts from Russia [1][2] - The discount on Russian oil for India has decreased from $14-16 per barrel at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to $2.5-4 per barrel, significantly impacting profit margins for Indian refineries [1] - Western price cap policies on Russian oil have forced India to seek alternative sources of oil supply [1] Group 2 - For China, the situation presents a favorable opportunity as the average price of Russian oil imports in the first half of 2025 is projected to be $10 lower per barrel than international market prices [2] - The energy cooperation between China and Russia is evolving beyond simple transactions, with increasing use of the yuan in energy trade, which undermines the dominance of the US dollar [2] - Russia is adjusting transportation routes to ensure stable oil supply to China, and both countries are exploring pilot projects for digital currency payments, enhancing future energy cooperation [2]