7月CPI：环比涨0.4%同比持平，促消费支撑物价

Core Insights - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, while year-on-year CPI remains flat [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [1] - The increase in CPI is attributed to the effects of domestic demand expansion policies, with notable price rises in services and industrial consumer goods [1] Group 1: CPI Trends - The month-on-month CPI increase of 0.4% is 0.1 percentage points higher than seasonal levels, driven by rising prices in the consumption sector [1] - Service prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the overall CPI increase [1] - Industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, rose by 0.2%, while energy prices increased by 1.6% month-on-month [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Policy Impact - The demand recovery is supported by consumption promotion policies, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors [1] - The prices of fuel and new energy vehicles stabilized, while household appliance prices saw month-on-month increases ranging from 0.5% to 2.2% [1] - The "trade-in for new" policy is expected to further support consumer goods prices and mitigate price wars in the automotive sector [1] Group 3: Gold and Jewelry Market - The prices of gold and platinum jewelry increased significantly, with year-on-year rises of 37.1% and 27.3%, respectively, contributing approximately 0.22 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI [1] - The automotive price decline is at its smallest in nearly 34 and 28 months, indicating a stabilization in the market [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - Continued implementation of consumption promotion measures is anticipated to bolster demand and support price stability [1] - The proactive macroeconomic policies are expected to accelerate domestic demand recovery, countering deflationary pressures and leading to a slight rebound in prices [1]