【高盛】变革中的中国：聚焦产能周期-延迟的转折点

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs report focuses on the current state and trends of China's capacity cycle in seven key manufacturing industries, indicating that despite short-term policy stimuli, the core issue of overcapacity remains unchanged, and the cyclical turning point has been delayed [1][2][24] Industry Overview - Five out of the seven key industries still have capacity exceeding global demand, with structural issues such as dispersed supply and flattening cost curves persisting [1][2][24] - Significant domestic demand stimulus policies, such as trade-in programs, have temporarily supported tail-end companies, with electric vehicles and air conditioning sectors seeing demand boosts of 16% for 2025 [1][32] Capacity Cycle and Turning Points - The "Three Principles" framework (cash profit margins, capital expenditure adjustments, demand outlook) suggests that most industries are further from their cyclical bottoms, leading to a delayed turning point and potential negative cyclical risks in the future [1][34] - The photovoltaic industry is closest to a turning point but still requires 6 to 12 months for a demand shift, while the electric vehicle sector faces weak profits and steep cost curves, necessitating market consolidation [1][34] Supply Structure and Consolidation Potential - Most industries remain fragmented, and the flattening cost curves hinder consolidation efforts, with the cash profit margin gap between leading and trailing firms narrowing [2][31] - Chinese companies are accelerating overseas capacity expansion to mitigate trade friction, with projections indicating that by 2028, overseas capacity could account for 0.5% to 14% of total Chinese capacity [2][27] Demand Dynamics - Demand front-loading effects from policy stimuli are significant, with the photovoltaic sector experiencing a "rush to install" and electric vehicle inventory replenishment driving short-term industry prosperity, though sustainability is questionable [2][30] - If demand stimulation declines post-2026, some industries may revert to the imbalanced levels seen in 2023-24 [2][24] Future Outlook - The rebalancing process of China's manufacturing capacity cycle is delayed due to policy interventions, with industry consolidation reliant on external factors such as global demand expansion and supply-side reforms [2][24] - Leading firms' advantages in cost control and market share, along with deepening overseas capacity layouts, will be critical variables influencing future industry dynamics [2][24]