“卖印度、买中国”！“关税战”逆转中印股市叙事

Core Viewpoint - The imposition of a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods by the Trump administration is reshaping the investment landscape in Asia, leading to a shift from "buying India" to "buying China" among investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The MSCI India index has underperformed the Chinese stock market by approximately 10 percentage points this quarter, potentially marking the largest annual performance gap since 2017 [2]. - Foreign investors withdrew about $3 billion from the Indian stock market last month, the highest monthly outflow since February of this year [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Adjustments - Goldman Sachs maintains a "market weight" view on the Indian stock market while reiterating an "overweight" stance on the Chinese market, raising the 12-month target for the MSCI China index [2][3]. - The market capitalization gap between Chinese and Indian stock markets has widened to $6.3 trillion, the largest since March [2]. Group 3: Trade Relations and Market Sentiment - The sudden and targeted nature of the tariffs has escalated trade tensions, affecting market sentiment and investor confidence in India [3]. - Analysts express concerns over India's high valuations and slowing profit growth, which may lead to further foreign fund sell-offs [3][4]. Group 4: Comparative Valuation - The MSCI India index is currently trading at over 21 times its one-year forward earnings, while the Chinese index is at 11.9 times, making China more attractive for value investors [4]. - The ongoing trade uncertainties may position Indian stocks as secondary in regional allocations, with potential for increased foreign fund selling [4]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook for India - Despite short-term challenges, India's long-term economic trajectory remains appealing to some investors, with Morgan Stanley predicting that India's stock market could reach new highs due to strong population growth and improving fundamentals [5].