美国36万亿债务压顶！15万亿或将回流，人民币要大涨？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant challenges facing the U.S. due to its soaring national debt, which has reached over $36 trillion, and the implications this has for military spending and technological advancements, particularly in hypersonic missile development [3][9][19] Debt Situation - The U.S. national debt has increased by nearly $2 trillion in the past year alone, with interest payments soaring to almost $800 billion, becoming one of the largest fiscal burdens [9] - The debt level is described as a "mountain" that is unsustainable, leading to potential cuts in military programs, including the construction of new aircraft carriers [5][9] Military Spending and Technology - The U.S. military budget is under pressure, with the costs of new "Ford-class" supercarriers rising significantly, resulting in planned reductions in the number of ships to be built [5][7] - The U.S. has faced multiple failures in hypersonic weapon tests, leading to wasted billions in taxpayer money and raising concerns about the efficiency of military spending [7][9] Financial Market Implications - The high level of U.S. debt is causing increased risk in financial markets, with investors seeking safer assets, leading to a significant accumulation of cash in reverse repurchase agreements, peaking at around $2.5 trillion [11] - There is speculation that if the U.S. debt market experiences instability, a substantial amount of this cash could flow into emerging markets, particularly into Chinese assets and the renminbi [5][13][19] Renminbi Internationalization - The article highlights the growing importance of the renminbi in international trade, with nearly half of cross-border transactions in China being settled in renminbi, indicating a shift away from the dollar [15] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has noted an increasing share of the renminbi in its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, reflecting a growing global confidence in the currency [13][15] Economic Stability Concerns - The influx of foreign capital into China could lead to inflated asset prices and potential economic bubbles, emphasizing the need for robust economic fundamentals and prudent macroeconomic policies [17][19] - The article warns that the U.S. debt crisis serves as a reminder of the risks associated with over-reliance on a single currency and the dangers of living beyond means, which could have global repercussions [19]