Ge Long Hui·2025-08-10 03:45Core Viewpoint - Wynn Macau's 2Q25 performance fell short of market expectations, with net revenue of $883 million, flat year-on-year and up 2% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 75% of 2Q19 levels [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted property EBITDA was $254 million, down 10% year-on-year and up 1% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 74% of 2Q19 levels, missing Bloomberg consensus of $274 million [1] - Total gaming revenue market share decreased from 12.3% in 1Q25 to 11.8% in 2Q25 [1] - Daily average operating costs increased to $2.66 million in 2Q25, up 4.5% year-on-year [1] Business Trends - Strong business performance in June 2025, stable activity in April, but offset by a lackluster May [1] - Despite no major concerts in July 2025, gaming volume accelerated due to increased visitor numbers [1] - Average daily EBITDA adjusted for theoretical win rate was $3.3 million in June and July 2025 [1] - The company is constructing an event center at the Wynn Palace North Entrance, expected to open in early 2028 [1] - Expansion of the Chairman Club and renovation of Wynn Tower guest rooms have commenced, with capital expenditures projected between $200 million and $250 million for 2025 [1] - Competitive rebate marketing levels remain stable despite new product launches from competitors [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged [2] - Current stock price corresponds to 9x 2025 EV/EBITDA, with a target price of HKD 6.90, indicating a 2% upside from the current price [2]