9月美联储降息预期高涨，美股能否开启新一轮行情

Group 1 - The expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 89.4%, up from 80.3% a week prior [1][4] - The U.S. stock market experienced strong performance last week, with the Dow Jones up 1.3%, Nasdaq up 3.9%, and S&P 500 up 2.4%, marking the best performance since June [6] - Over 450 S&P 500 companies reported earnings, with a growth rate of 13.2%, significantly higher than the 5.8% reported on July 1 [6] Group 2 - The ISM services PMI fell to 50.1, indicating a slowdown, while the employment index dropped to 46.4, suggesting challenges in the labor market [3] - Initial jobless claims rose to 226,000, exceeding market expectations, while continuing claims increased to 1.971 million [3][5] - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its forecast for the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve to September, citing weak labor market data [4] Group 3 - Investor sentiment remains cautious despite the stock market rally, with a net outflow of $13.7 billion from U.S. equity funds, the highest since June 25 [6] - The upcoming inflation report and monthly retail sales data are expected to influence market volatility [7] - UBS anticipates that the effective tariff rate will stabilize around 15%, which may suppress economic growth but not derail the stock market rebound [6]