江西矿区减停产传闻引爆碳酸锂期货，一周飙涨超10%至76960元/吨

Core Viewpoint - After a brief adjustment, lithium carbonate futures have experienced a significant price increase, with the main contract closing at 76,960 yuan/ton on August 8, marking a weekly rise of over 10% [1] Supply Changes and Price Drivers - The market's focus has shifted to the progress of mining license renewals in Jiangxi, with expectations of production cuts driving the potential for supply contraction, which is a key factor for price increases [3] - Despite the uncertainty surrounding potential production halts, this has led to heightened sensitivity in market trading rhythms [3] - Current weekly production of lithium carbonate remains high, and rising prices have encouraged some companies to increase operational willingness, with expectations of increased output from African and South American sources [3] - Social inventory growth is limited, indicating that downstream sectors still have some capacity for absorption, although rapid price increases have led to a cautious stance among processing and end-user companies [3] Demand Changes and Market Sentiment - Demand-side changes have not led to a comprehensive boost, but there are still expectations for a seasonal peak, with a slight decline in new energy vehicle sales in the first half of the year [4] - There are signs of increased production plans for cathode materials and battery cells, which bolster confidence among some market participants to maintain long positions and enhance raw material replenishment intentions [4] - The impact of market sentiment has been particularly pronounced, with ongoing speculation about production halts leading to significant short-term price fluctuations [4] - Despite prices being at high levels, market volatility may continue until actual procurement activities commence, necessitating a stable response from investment and industrial procurement to mitigate risks from over-expectation [4]