中国银河：给予常熟银行买入评级

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Changshu Bank has demonstrated stable high growth in its performance, with an increase in both revenue and net profit, and an improved dividend payout ratio [2][5]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.062 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.969 billion yuan, up 13.51% [2]. - The annualized weighted average ROE was 13.34%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.06 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - For Q2 2025, revenue and net profit grew by 10.16% and 13.15% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a steady expansion of scale and continued growth in non-interest income [2]. Asset and Liability Management - In H1 2025, net interest income was 4.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.83%, with a net interest margin (NIM) of 2.58%, down 3 basis points quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company optimized its deposit costs, with significant reductions in the cost of time deposits, leading to a stable growth in total loans, which increased by 4.4% year-on-year [3]. - Total deposits grew by 8.15% year-on-year, with corporate deposits increasing by 17.32% and personal deposits by 6.88% [3]. Non-Interest Income and Other Metrics - Non-interest income reached 1.422 billion yuan in H1 2025, a substantial year-on-year increase of 57.26%, driven by growth in agency business income [4]. - The company reported a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76% as of June 2025, stable compared to Q1, with a coverage ratio of 489.53%, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [4]. Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a strategy focused on small and micro finance, with a solid competitive edge in personal operating loans and ongoing expansion of branch networks [5]. - The first mid-term dividend was implemented in 2025, with a payout ratio of 25.27%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points from the end of 2024 [5]. - The forecasted book value per share (BVPS) for 2025-2027 is projected at 9.73 yuan, 10.84 yuan, and 12.01 yuan, respectively, with current price-to-book ratios of 0.80X, 0.72X, and 0.65X [5].